When you are currently the 5th place team in the A.L. Wild Card race in August you are more apt to look at crazy scenarios that might get you into a playoff spot. When you haven't been to the playoffs in almost 30 years, you will consider any scenario.
This isn't about figuring out the tie-breakers in the PowerBall-type odds that 5 teams will tie for the two Wild Card spots. This is about what it looks like for everyone involved to get to the exact same spot at the end of the season so that Royals fans can gain perspective.
First of all, let's set a path for the Royals based on their recent 59 games - because their recent 18 game pace is not realistic. The Royals are 37-22 since June 3rd. That is a .627 pace. If they can play .627 ball over the last 48 games they will finish with a 90-72 record.
Outside of their 11 games with Detroit, the rest of their remaining schedule includes series with Miami, CWS, Minn, Toronto, Wash, and Seattle. Since June 10th, the Royals have a 13-6 (.684) record vs. the likes of Det, TB, Atl, Bal, and Bos. The last stretch of the season won't have that strength of schedule.
If the Royals do get to 90 wins, here's what the rest of the teams would have to do to finish with 90 wins:
TB - 24-23
Oak - 25-22
Balt - 26-20
Cleve - 28-18
Oh, and those team's records over the last 10 games?
TB - 4-6
Oak - 3-7
Balt - 6-4
Cleve - 3-7
Writing all this out just made me feel a little bit better about the chances.
