When you are currently the 5th place team in the A.L. Wild Card race in August you are more apt to look at crazy scenarios that might get you into a playoff spot. When you haven't been to the playoffs in almost 30 years, you will consider any scenario.
This isn't about figuring out the tie-breakers in the PowerBall-type odds that 5 teams will tie for the two Wild Card spots. This is about what it looks like for everyone involved to get to the exact same spot at the end of the season so that Royals fans can gain perspective.
First of all, let's set a path for the Royals based on their recent 59 games - because their recent 18 game pace is not realistic. The Royals are 37-22 since June 3rd. That is a .627 pace. If they can play .627 ball over the last 48 games they will finish with a 90-72 record.
Outside of their 11 games with Detroit, the rest of their remaining schedule includes series with Miami, CWS, Minn, Toronto, Wash, and Seattle. Since June 10th, the Royals have a 13-6 (.684) record vs. the likes of Det, TB, Atl, Bal, and Bos. The last stretch of the season won't have that strength of schedule.
If the Royals do get to 90 wins, here's what the rest of the teams would have to do to finish with 90 wins:
TB - 24-23
Oak - 25-22
Balt - 26-20
Cleve - 28-18
Oh, and those team's records over the last 10 games?
TB - 4-6
Oak - 3-7
Balt - 6-4
Cleve - 3-7
Writing all this out just made me feel a little bit better about the chances.
Sunday, August 11, 2013
Saturday, July 20, 2013
22July2013 Baseball Trade Proposal
The best trades are those that are beneficial to both sides in some way and do not, at least initially, seem too lopsided. Taking into account the recent statements of upper management of both the Kansas City Royals and the St. Louis Cardinals, we propose the following trade (with supporting justifications to follow):
To the St. Louis Cardinals (5 players) - (SP) Ervin Santana, (RP) Kelvin Herrera, (RP) Luke Hochever, (INF) Miguel Tejada, (INF) Chris Getz
To the Kansas City Royals (7 players) - (INF) Kolten Wong, (SP) John Gast, (SP) Tyrell Jenkins and any three (3) from the following: (RP) Michael Blazek, (SP) Tyler Lyons, (RP) Kevin Siegrist, (SP/RF) Seth Maness, (RP) Keith Butler. Royals also receive either (INF) Pete Kozma or (INF) Ryan Jackson.
Keys/Justifications -
*Royals get their biggest hole filled (2B) with an MLB-ready top prospect who is blocked by an All-Star 2B.
*Royals would only get comp pick for Santana for letting him walk, which doesn't help the team in the immediate future (which GM Moore insists). This gives them young MLB-ready arms that can help immediately and next year (plus a top pitching prospect for the future in Jenkins). All these pitchers have pitched in the major leagues this year except for Jenkins.
*Cards get an experienced and legit #2 who is pitching extremely well this season and provides insurance for the young arms, especially going into the post-season.
*Cards get a slight but significant upgrade in the late innings with Herrera's electric stuff, and he's older and more experienced than some of the young help currently in the bullpen.
*Royals can bring up (INF) Giavotella for 2B-3B backup. Kozma or Jackson to minors to backup or possibly push (SS) Escobar.
*Cards get great veteran presence and versatility in Tejada (including SS), with Getz to minors as replacement for Wong and veteran emergency insurance for (2B) Carpenter.
*Cards get another reclamation project in Hochever, who needs a change of scenery. He can also provide some veteran late-inning or long reliever help this year.
*Royals shed some salary and get young talent that can help both this year and especially for the big push next year.
*Cards get key veteran help while only giving up young talent that is blocked or stacked.
*Royals replenish young pitching depth to replace prospects that haven't progressed to the level that these young arms have.
***Caveat - This trade only takes place if the Royals drop 8 games back or further by the trade deadline. If they are still within 7 games or less, GM Moore will want to keep Santana. We would argue that this would still be a better trade for the Royals going into 2014, but Moore will not allow any perception of subtracting from the current talent until HE feels they are not in striking distance for the post-season THIS year.
The best trades are those that are beneficial to both sides in some way and do not, at least initially, seem too lopsided. Taking into account the recent statements of upper management of both the Kansas City Royals and the St. Louis Cardinals, we propose the following trade (with supporting justifications to follow):
To the St. Louis Cardinals (5 players) - (SP) Ervin Santana, (RP) Kelvin Herrera, (RP) Luke Hochever, (INF) Miguel Tejada, (INF) Chris Getz
To the Kansas City Royals (7 players) - (INF) Kolten Wong, (SP) John Gast, (SP) Tyrell Jenkins and any three (3) from the following: (RP) Michael Blazek, (SP) Tyler Lyons, (RP) Kevin Siegrist, (SP/RF) Seth Maness, (RP) Keith Butler. Royals also receive either (INF) Pete Kozma or (INF) Ryan Jackson.
Keys/Justifications -
*Royals get their biggest hole filled (2B) with an MLB-ready top prospect who is blocked by an All-Star 2B.
*Royals would only get comp pick for Santana for letting him walk, which doesn't help the team in the immediate future (which GM Moore insists). This gives them young MLB-ready arms that can help immediately and next year (plus a top pitching prospect for the future in Jenkins). All these pitchers have pitched in the major leagues this year except for Jenkins.
*Cards get an experienced and legit #2 who is pitching extremely well this season and provides insurance for the young arms, especially going into the post-season.
*Cards get a slight but significant upgrade in the late innings with Herrera's electric stuff, and he's older and more experienced than some of the young help currently in the bullpen.
*Royals can bring up (INF) Giavotella for 2B-3B backup. Kozma or Jackson to minors to backup or possibly push (SS) Escobar.
*Cards get great veteran presence and versatility in Tejada (including SS), with Getz to minors as replacement for Wong and veteran emergency insurance for (2B) Carpenter.
*Cards get another reclamation project in Hochever, who needs a change of scenery. He can also provide some veteran late-inning or long reliever help this year.
*Royals shed some salary and get young talent that can help both this year and especially for the big push next year.
*Cards get key veteran help while only giving up young talent that is blocked or stacked.
*Royals replenish young pitching depth to replace prospects that haven't progressed to the level that these young arms have.
***Caveat - This trade only takes place if the Royals drop 8 games back or further by the trade deadline. If they are still within 7 games or less, GM Moore will want to keep Santana. We would argue that this would still be a better trade for the Royals going into 2014, but Moore will not allow any perception of subtracting from the current talent until HE feels they are not in striking distance for the post-season THIS year.
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